Lebanese citizens remain deeply frustrated with the political class, whose negligence has led to economic crisis and poor distribution of services. The word conflict is as old as mankind. In November, a cartel ambush killed 10 Mexican-American Mormon women and children. Somalia: High risk of Al Shabaab adapting to dominate and isolate a weak government. Andrew Forsyth, who preferred not to show his face, shows the peace wall that runs through his backyard. To help you, here’s our 2020 interfaith calendar, and inclusive religious calendar of holy days. The Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) also remained active in Afghanistan in 2019, launching dozens of attacks on government and civilian targets. For example, following a Trump rally in Cincinnati in August, a scuffle broke out between protesters and Trump supporters, resulting in punches being thrown and an arrest needing to be made (CBS News, 2 August 2019). For the former, the default format should be used, while for the latter, the “actor based” file should be used. Citizens of J&K ended 2019 with a reduced right to self-determination, suppressed civil liberties and roadblocks to democracy following constitutional and security measures introduced prior to BDC elections. People there are not keen on the walls coming down, either. “There are still people who are opposed to moving forward in the peace and reconciliation process. So much so that, in October 2019, a poll conducted by Georgetown University indicated that a majority of Americans believe the country is “two-thirds of the way” to outright civil war (New York Magazine, 25 October 2019). Braden is fluent in English, Arabic, and Amharic and is based in Washington, DC. Still, the most serious and destabilizing acts of violence are perpetrated by local militias, recruited by or possibly partnered with either Jihadist organizations or domestic governments. Practitioners, researchers, journalists, and governments depend on ACLED for the latest reliable information on current conflict and disorder patterns. While the Sahel crisis has been strongly cast as an African example of the global Jihadi threat, the most recent surge in violence underscores that local, domestic, often ethnicized tensions generate and perpetuate the most lasting instability. Governments are also much more likely to use violence against their citizens without international reproach. They’re talking about bringing these walls down, but that’s definitely not going to happen.". A Christian pastor's kidnapping and execution by Boko Haram in January along with a spate of reported attacks on churches in recent years in northern Nigeria have led some Christians in … “If we look at [peace walls] in a realistic world, we shouldn't need them, but also in a realistic world, it gives me more sense of security,” he said at his doorstep with a giant sign that reads, “Welcome to loyalist Cluan Place. Humanitarian Crises. “Regrettably, ongoing political uncertainty means that progress is being hampered. Since the late 1960s, a bloody, 30-year guerrilla war was waged throughout Northern Ireland, leaving over 3,600 dead. A series of other incidents, including attacks on several oil tankers and two major Saudi oil facilities, have also been blamed on Iran. Heightened tension between India and Pakistan surrounding the Kashmir issue, coupled with dissent against the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the Indian government’s policies surrounding Kashmir and the CAA, will perpetuate the environment of mistrust between Islamabad and New Delhi. Following the Pulwama attack, Indian fighter jets launched strikes on militant targets in Pakistan. In his role, he oversees the coding of political violence and protest events in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Researcher Matthias Basedau says weak African states are a major cause. In addition to attacks on military and government targets, Al Shabaab remains the largest threat to civilians in the country, frequently targeting non-military sites and unarmed civil servants with assassinations and improvised explosives. In the '70s, the British government began to build separation barriers known as "peace walls" around Northern Ireland to separate Catholic and Protestant areas in an attempt to control sectarian violence. CONFLICTS AND CAUSES OF CONFLICTS IN AFRICA. Furthermore, strong opposition to the Indian government’s actions in J&K were reported across the country in the form of protests, violent demonstrations, and clashes with police forces. Ameneh is fluent in Persian, English and German, and has a working knowledge in Arabic. Others in India’s ethnically diverse northeast are opposed to the Act’s demographic ramifications, precipitating the threat of ethnic violence in the region. ... at the current moment, there is little hope for change in this region. The splinter groups are competing violently over the existing drug trade infrastructure, but are also constantly evolving and diversifying criminal activities by engaging in kidnapping, extortion, fuel theft, and human trafficking. The street is decorated with British flags, and paramilitary murals adorn the sides of houses. Somalia, along with other Gulf of Aden littoral states, has also become one of the “most vivid examples of potential destabilization brought by the Gulf rivalry” between Qatar and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (New York Times, 22 July 2019). Office of the Historian. Current Event "Religious conflicts around the globe and a solution" written by Anna Shaukat on Oct 15, 2020. With fewer than 300 days until the vote, the US faces a real threat of serious political disorder. The West Bank and Gaza has been a disputed territory throughout history. “If we look at [peace walls] in a realistic world, we shouldn't need them, but also in a realistic world, it gives me more sense of security.". ACLED records a significant increase in violent events across the LoC between Indian and Pakistani security forces in 2019 compared to previous years: 582 cross-border shelling and firing events were reported in 2019, compared to 349 in 2018. Likewise, more than 20 hate crimes against minority groups are recorded during this period, including seven attacks targeting members of the LGBTQ+ community, particularly transgender women. Thompson said not long after moving to the area, she was punched in the face and her friend's arm was broken on one occasion by people from the other side. We couldn’t have done it without your support. The suspect reportedly justified the shooting — which was the deadliest attack recorded during ACLED’s three-month pilot — as “a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas” (Guardian, 10 October 2019). According to ACLED data, Al Shabaab is responsible for 44% of reported fatalities that occur during events in which civilians are directly targeted in Somalia. Despite the BJP’s increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha post-2014, the opposition majority has hindered the BJP’s ability to pass controversial bills (Money Control, 1 January 2020). An “actor based” file displays events by single actors instead, meaning that events are often repeated if two actors are involved. In many places, demonstrations turned into riots, with hundreds of banks, petrol stations, and government sites burned down or vandalized (Reuters, 26 November 2019). Two problems immediately stand out: the world is significantly more violent now than a decade ago, and today’s conflict forms are strongly localized — types of violence, agents, targets, and solutions are unique to their local context. Brexit is also another issue on the lips of Northern Ireland’s citizens as uncertainty over the border issue has stirred tensions. Furthermore, such policies have amplified existing hostility between Kashmiri citizens and Indian security forces surrounding a history of ongoing human rights abuses in the region (Human Rights Watch, 10 July 2019). The first of these conflicts pits the Houthis — a Zaydi revivalist movement hailing from Yemen’s northern highlands that seized the capital Sana’a in 2014 — against the internationally recognised government, led by President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. Federalist agendas and the push for greater autonomy in Ethiopia’s regional states are already shaping the country’s political landscape ahead of the 2020 election (Africa News, 2 January 2020), amplifying tensions between ethnic groups. Published: 31 Dec 2020 . Directly on the other side of the colossal wall that looms over Brennan’s house is a staunch loyalist Protestant area. Photo: Will Swanson/IRC . During the second year of Abiy’s term, ACLED has recorded clashes between ethnic militias and communal groups near the Oromo-Afar regional state borders, the Guji Oromo-Gedeo community border areas, the Amhara-Gumuz regional state borders, the Oromo-Benishangul Gumuz regional state borders, and the Oromo special zones in Amhara region, among others – resulting in the displacement of millions (Africa News, 13 May 2019). In August of 1947, India and Pakistan were on the cusp of independence from the British. “Why America Can’t Quit the Middle East,” Accessed March 6, 2020. Historical Context. Brennan, a member of the Irish republican movement, grew up in Short Strand, a staunchly Catholic, working-class neighborhood in predominantly Protestant east Belfast. ACLED records over 23,000 deaths in 2019 stemming directly from the conflict — a 25% decrease in total reported fatalities from 2018, but still the second deadliest year of the war. Meanwhile, clashes over territory in Ad Dali, Sadah, and Hajjah governorates continued between both sides, with Houthi forces losing control over major strategic crossroads in Ad Dali. In October 2019, an operation to capture the son of drug kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán in the city of Culiacan led to an intense 12-hour gun battle between the Sinaloa cartel and the Mexican security forces, prompting the federal government to release Ovidio Guzmán to avoid further escalation. These forces are made up of three major components, the Guardians of the Republic led by the former President’s nephew Tariq Saleh, the Salafist Giants Brigade, and the Tihami Resistance. To understand this conflict, it is essential to look back into the history of the area. The Arab-Israeli conflict is a contest over a particular territory. On the republican side, you have dissident organizations who are criminal gangs, but they’re using this political cover. Related: This tiny Northern Ireland town fears a Brexit hard border could stir more ‘Troubles’. In 2015, USIP and our Syrian partner convened 14 leaders—representing religious, tribal, and civic segments of society—for talks on tensions in the al-Qahtaniya area of northeast Syria. These are the responsibilities of the relevant government departments and agencies who own the barriers and/or who have responsibility for regeneration programs. The current breakdown of the balance between the two sides could lead to an escalation of conflict across the region, albeit with different trajectories, as the STC has become an active player with different capabilities in all of the southern governorates. Additionally, pre-election campaigning in Bihar, as well as in states like West Bengal and Assam where legislative assembly elections are slated to be held in 2021, can be expected to produce more political violence. Sign up for our daily newsletter TOP OF THE WORLD and get the big stories we’re tracking delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The story you just read is freely available and accessible to everyone because readers like you support The World financially. The Presbyterian Church (USA) has declined from 3.1 million members in 1984 to about 1.3 million today. The recent passage of the CAA threatens to generate continuing violence between demonstrators and police, as well as violence between left-wing opponents and right-wing supporters of the law across India. After his election in the spring of 2018, Prime Minister Abiy has opened political space significantly, allowing for a number of opposition groups to return to the country from abroad and participate in political activism (BBC, 29 June 2019). The third main conflict is an Islamist insurgency launched by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemeni branch of the Islamic State (IS). There were multiple cases during the pilot period where clashes between demonstrators became violent. Share This. Additionally, with tensions running high between US- and Iran- allied groups, it remains to be seen how this will play out in Lebanon between various political parties – particularly with Iran’s prominent ally Hezbollah. This has led to increased discontent among the Iranian public with the ruling elite, which manifested itself in mass demonstrations that erupted in more than 100 cities and towns across Iran following a sharp hike in fuel prices last November. Please be aware that ACLED covers over 100 countries, but the period of active coverage differs by region and country. The central government is weak and … The Sahel: High risk of conflicts diffusing and infecting neighbors. Iran: High risk of center deteriorating amid regime escalation at home and abroad. “The peace lines won't come down in the time I have ahead of me,” 70-year-old Brennan said. Many of the dead were reported to have been ethnic minorities living in Oromia (AP, 26 October 2019). In 2013, Northern Ireland’s government set up an initiative to remove all of them by 2023, but approximately 116 barriers remain “as visible symbols of community segregation and division,” reported the International Fund for Ireland, an organization that encourages contact and dialogue between nationalists and unionists. The government has been unable to destroy Boko Haram or end the local conflicts in the Middle Belt. “I live on a peace line, and I feel safer with those walls up,” Brennan said, echoing the stance of many others in Short Strand. Recent fighting ended a 30-year long truce. She holds a PhD in International Relations and a master’s degree in Middle East and Central Asian Security from the University of St Andrews. Somalia’s security partners in the fight against Al Shabaab made major efforts to degrade the group throughout the year. The Taliban has so far refused to engage in formal direct negotiations with the Afghan government, which it claims is illegitimate. Unless cooperation among Somalia’s federal member states increases and the threat from Al Shabaab is more effectively neutralized, Somalia is likely to see continued obstacles to its recovery from collapse. Yet there may be … “When we first moved in here [seven years ago], it was mental with things coming over [the wall] and kids not being able to play on the street,” said Rosanne Thompson, 38, a professional caregiver who has a peace wall running across the back garden of her council house. Across these 10 cases, observers have often concentrated on active threats and acts of violence, and less so on the latent risks that may produce new agents, modalities, targets, and opportunities for violence. He stands by a memorial for them in Short Strand, east Belfast, Northern Ireland. It remains to be seen whether the ruling BJP will be willing or able to adopt a more pluralistic approach to address accumulating governance challenges. He oversees the organization's strategic communications, public outreach, and user engagement. ACLED is the highest quality and most widely used real-time data and analysis source on political violence and protest around the world. It is often argued that a religious crisis is more political than religious. If proper precautions are not taken, ethnic conflict and the fragility of the Ethiopian political system could lead to disaster in the 2020 election year. Five years into the conflict, the scale of destruction in Yemen has reached unprecedented levels: more than 100,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of the violence, including over 12,000 civilians killed in targeted attacks.